“Everything must be taken into account. If the fact will not fit the theory---let the theory go.”
― Agatha Christie, The Mysterious Affair at Styles (from goodreads.com)
― Agatha Christie, The Mysterious Affair at Styles (from goodreads.com)
I've been thinking a lot lately about unintended consequences: The idea that often (always) when we make a change or take an action, there are unforeseen and unplanned for results.
For example, a recent study of Amish children is seen to support the Hygiene Hypothesis which states that many allergies may be caused by children missing exposure to allergens. In other words, if the environment is too clean, then the immune system develops the "over-reaction" we know as allergic responses.
Another example that comes up often in my circles involves the No Child Left Behind educational policy. I have no doubt that the policy sprung from the sincere desire to improve education nationwide by emphasizing objective standards and student test results to measure progress. Alvin Granowsky, Ed.D., points out "(t)he type of pressure and rewards being placed on schools to have high test scores has resulted in an obsession with performance on tests... Classroom time previously used for learning, discussing, and exploring ideas is now spent focusing narrowly on content expected to be on the test or simply practicing test taking skills."
So the answer then, I think, is absolute adherence to the scientific method. We must hold off on absolute certainty in absence of overwhelming evidence. We must continue to learn and look for causation or correlation where they occur. As Ms. Christie states above, the facts (conclusions) must drive the theory, not the reverse.
